Letters to the Editor

Here are some of my letters (latest first) to the editor mostly published in The Dominion newspaper (Wellington, NZ), but not all because this paper does not agree with all of my right-wing views. If you’re not from Wellington several of these letters won’t make much or any sense.  I try to put a fun spin on topics of the moment, although the letters may suggest that I’m a bigoted reactionary, but in fact I prefer to think that I’m a harmless, somewhat cynical humorist who has some interest in politics and time on my hands.

1 April 2017. The Wellington Town Hall is an anachronism.  Its past use is irrelevant.  Sell the building for apartments and use the proceeds together with the rapidly escalating amount of ratepayers’ money seemingly available for the refurbishment of the Town Hall to roof the … Read More »

Project probabilities

We don’t need expensive software to answer questions such as:

When do we reasonably expect to complete our project?
What’s the probability of completing our project on time or on a given date?
Which tasks on the critical path should we focus on to meet the schedule?
With a 95 percent confidence level how much will our project cost?
How much variance is associated with the total man-hours we’ve estimated for this project?

Well, here’s a worked example.  We need a calculator with a square root function.  Given the task durations below, what’s the probability of completing this project in 13 days?

First we calculate variance and standard deviation along the
critical path:

Based the probability distribution table, the Z Score of 0.46 provides a probability of 0.1772, and since 13 is less than BET we subtract 0.1772 from 0.5.  The resultant 0.3228 … Read More »


My latest thoughts on Project Management and life.

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