Do you go on weekly or fortnightly supermarket shopping expeditions? Either way, this blog item might help you determine your shopping contingency time (or contingency time for any other project) – that’s the extra time needed to allow for possible delay-causing incidents during project implementation. This blog item shows us how to determine contingency time somewhat more scientifically than merely thinking of a number and doubling it or throwing dice.
Part of the solution is to apply what’s called the PERT formula (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). This formula allows us to determine a project’s best estimated time (BET) or duration – depending always on the accuracy of our input data. (PERT is a weighted-average estimate, heavily weighted towards the most likely duration (ie, 68.3%), which is one standard deviation (sd) either side of the norm – for … Read More »