The Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Edition 6) advocates the use of Monte Carlo simulation for performing quantitative risk analysis.
In the project management discipline, Monte Carlo method, or probability simulation, is a computer-based mathematical technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty. Its most common use is in the creation of the project schedule and the determination of the project end date. The Monte Carlo method was invented by scientists working on the atomic bomb project in the 1940s. They named the method after the city in Monaco famed for its casinos and games of chance.
Monte Carlo simulation provides a number of advantages over deterministic, or single-point estimates:
Helps to evaluate the overall risk in the project.
Converts uncertainty on the project into tangible numbers to assess the overall impact to the project.
It can be applied to assess the … Read More »
Among other changes, the Project Management Institute in their latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Edition 6) has sensibly renamed the “Time Management” knowledge area “Schedule Management” to distinquish it from personal Time Management. However, personal Time Management skills remain essential for our success in any project or workplace.
While we cannot actually manage time, which zooms on relentlessly, we can make better use of this scarce resource by working smarter to improve our personal productivity while combating the rising tide of workplace stress.
People who manage to get a lot of value-added work accomplished each day aren’t superhuman; they’ve simply mastered a few simple tools and techniques that we’ll discuss here.
Time management is about more than just managing our time. It is about setting priorities and taking charge. It often means changing habits or activities that cause us to waste … Read More »
“You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em
Know when to fold ‘em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run.”
Kenny Rogers – “The Gambler”
“The Gambler” reminds us that in poker, folding is part of the game. It allows us to take risks, knowing that if things don’t take a positive turn, we can always abandon the pursuit, although as in poker our project might be seduced by sunk costs – irreversible financial “investment.”
In 1996 there was a fatal attempt to climb Everest, when five people died on the mountain unwilling to heed the mandatory turnaround time and pull the plug on an expedition that faced deteriorating conditions. How do these projects continue in the face of evidence that the plug should have been pulled? How can we make sense of … Read More »